London Economics has been appointed by AHDB to undertake an updated economic impact assessment of a potential African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Great Britain.
The assessment is intended to strengthen the pig industry’s preparedness and provide an evidence base for future engagement with the government, industry stakeholders and trading partners.
The project will be led by John Curnow, former director of analysis and chief economist at Defra, alongside ASF specialist Dr Chris Netherton from the Pirbright Institute.
It will assess the economic impact of an ASF outbreak across the supply chain under a range of scenarios, ranging from incidents confined to feral wild boar through to more widespread outbreaks affecting pig populations across multiple regions.
The project will also map the British pig supply chain to better understand how the impacts of an outbreak could be felt by producers, processors, exporters and other businesses connected to the sector.
Particular attention will be given to trade impacts, market access, regional differences, costs associated with disease control measures, and the potential consequences for producer incomes and sector resilience.
The project officially started in September 2026, and the final report is to be delivered in Q1 2027.
